Ecuador en vivo - "A Vinicio Alvarado, en persona, le entregué 10.000 dólares", asegura ex ejecutivo de Invermun
Ecuador,
Martes 20 de octubre del 2009
"A Vinicio Alvarado, en persona, le entregué 10.000 dólares", asegura ex
ejecutivo de Invermun
El ex ejecutivo de Invermun, Jaime Solórzano, ha afirmado de manera
pública en Teleamazonas que él en persona le entregó a Vinico Alvarado,
secretario General de la Administración Pública, "un sobre manila con
10.000 dólares, en efectivo". (Teleamazonas)
En la jerga de Invermun (empresa de casinos) las "ayudas" se denominaban
"códigos" y "siguen ocurriendo". "Yo (Jaime Solórzano) también participé
en la entrega de esa ayuda a Vinicio Alvrado". Eso fue "una sola vez y
otra al hermano".
Sobre Pierina Correa, dijo que ella ha dado las explicaciones de las
ayudas que recibía de Invermun eran para una fundación. "Entonces, ella
sabrá que ese era el destino de las ayudas".
Sobre Luis Monge, actual Jefe Político de Guayaquil, dijo que tiene unas
empresas que organizan los eventos que hace el Presidente dentro de la
provincia del Guayas o el Gobierno, y es Invermun la que paga esos
eventos.
Reiteró que Juan Carlos Casinelly, asambleísta gobiernista y ex Jefe
Político de Guayaquil, recibió "ayudas". (jtr)
miércoles, 21 de abril de 2010
¿Bienvenido Sucre o Macchimavello?
¿Bienvenido Sucre o Macchimavello?
Alberto J. Bernal-León -
Bogotá. El Alba, el grupo económico-político creado por Chávez y que goza de la participación de Estados tan variopintos como Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Dominica, y otros países caribeños, tomó la decisión de crear el Sucre.
Será una moneda virtual que servirá para que los emisores de los países miembros hagan el "neteo" de su comercio. Mejor dicho, las importaciones de Venezuela provenientes del Ecuador se van a contabilizar en sucres, y no en dólares. El texto de la cumbre obviamente habló tangencialmente sobre la segunda razón de la creación del Sucre, que es la necesidad política de demostrarle a Estados Unidos que estas potencias económicas del Alba no necesitan de los gringos para comerciar.
Ahora, falta ver si la noticia de la creación del Sucre le llegó a Bernanke, o si a Bernanke le importó aunque fuera un poquito que los presidentes del Alba hubieran decidido rebelarse contra la moneda del imperio.
Ahora a la sustancia. Pareciera que estos demagogos no le ha hecho la matemática al asunto.
Los exportadores y los importadores comercian vía cartas de crédito, porque necesitan el efectivo de su exportación o necesitan dinero para pagar la importación para poderle pagar a sus empleados, o para poder pagar los insumos.
Esto lo que implica es que los bancos le cobran a los respectivos agentes un descuento del flujo futuro de la exportación o le cobran una tasa de fondeo a los importadores. Para saber cuál es la tasa de interés que se debe cobrar, el banco mira cual es la tasa de interés prevalente en esa moneda. ¿Cuál es la tasa de interés del Sucre?
Otro punto es que cómo el Sucre va a ser una moneda virtual, entonces los industriales de Nicaragua van a necesitar que el Banco Central les de córdobas para pagarle a sus empleados, y los venezolanos van a necesitar bolívares, etc. Y esta perla: los industriales ecuatorianos van a necesitar que el Emisor les de dólares para pagarles a sus empleados.
Mejor dicho, se "netea" en sucres para "tirarse a los gringos", pero igual toca devolverle al industrial dólares, pues no existe ningún empleado en Ecuador que sea tan maquiavélico como Correa como para aceptar que le den sucres por su trabajo.
El documento del Alba hace la bellísima comparación entre el Sucre y el Euro. Es cierto que el Euro fue una moneda virtual al principio. La diferencia es que desde hace 60 años sabemos que Europa iba rumbo a tener una moneda común basada en fundamentales económicos y legales fuertes, como el respeto a la lucha inflacionaria (independencia del ente monetario), el respeto a los derechos de capital (nada de nacionalizaciones por razones políticas), y el claro endoso de la economía de mercados como fundamento básico del sostenimiento del valor de la moneda a largo plazo.
Pero lo más grave acá es el mensaje a los ecuatorianos. Ya de por si la dolarización está en peligro, y hablar del Sucre no hace sino meterle dinamita a la cuestión. Bienvenido Sucre, o bienvenido Macchiavello, porque querer desaparecer los ahorros, por una cuestión ideológica, suena bien maquiavélico.
Alberto J. Bernal-León -
Bogotá. El Alba, el grupo económico-político creado por Chávez y que goza de la participación de Estados tan variopintos como Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Dominica, y otros países caribeños, tomó la decisión de crear el Sucre.
Será una moneda virtual que servirá para que los emisores de los países miembros hagan el "neteo" de su comercio. Mejor dicho, las importaciones de Venezuela provenientes del Ecuador se van a contabilizar en sucres, y no en dólares. El texto de la cumbre obviamente habló tangencialmente sobre la segunda razón de la creación del Sucre, que es la necesidad política de demostrarle a Estados Unidos que estas potencias económicas del Alba no necesitan de los gringos para comerciar.
Ahora, falta ver si la noticia de la creación del Sucre le llegó a Bernanke, o si a Bernanke le importó aunque fuera un poquito que los presidentes del Alba hubieran decidido rebelarse contra la moneda del imperio.
Ahora a la sustancia. Pareciera que estos demagogos no le ha hecho la matemática al asunto.
Los exportadores y los importadores comercian vía cartas de crédito, porque necesitan el efectivo de su exportación o necesitan dinero para pagar la importación para poderle pagar a sus empleados, o para poder pagar los insumos.
Esto lo que implica es que los bancos le cobran a los respectivos agentes un descuento del flujo futuro de la exportación o le cobran una tasa de fondeo a los importadores. Para saber cuál es la tasa de interés que se debe cobrar, el banco mira cual es la tasa de interés prevalente en esa moneda. ¿Cuál es la tasa de interés del Sucre?
Otro punto es que cómo el Sucre va a ser una moneda virtual, entonces los industriales de Nicaragua van a necesitar que el Banco Central les de córdobas para pagarle a sus empleados, y los venezolanos van a necesitar bolívares, etc. Y esta perla: los industriales ecuatorianos van a necesitar que el Emisor les de dólares para pagarles a sus empleados.
Mejor dicho, se "netea" en sucres para "tirarse a los gringos", pero igual toca devolverle al industrial dólares, pues no existe ningún empleado en Ecuador que sea tan maquiavélico como Correa como para aceptar que le den sucres por su trabajo.
El documento del Alba hace la bellísima comparación entre el Sucre y el Euro. Es cierto que el Euro fue una moneda virtual al principio. La diferencia es que desde hace 60 años sabemos que Europa iba rumbo a tener una moneda común basada en fundamentales económicos y legales fuertes, como el respeto a la lucha inflacionaria (independencia del ente monetario), el respeto a los derechos de capital (nada de nacionalizaciones por razones políticas), y el claro endoso de la economía de mercados como fundamento básico del sostenimiento del valor de la moneda a largo plazo.
Pero lo más grave acá es el mensaje a los ecuatorianos. Ya de por si la dolarización está en peligro, y hablar del Sucre no hace sino meterle dinamita a la cuestión. Bienvenido Sucre, o bienvenido Macchiavello, porque querer desaparecer los ahorros, por una cuestión ideológica, suena bien maquiavélico.
Elsie Monge colaboró en asalto a banco de la Producción en 1986, según General Vaca
Elsie Monge colaboró en asalto a banco de la Producción en 1986, según
General Vaca
martes, 08 de diciembre de 2009
El general de la Policía, Edgar Vaca, ex comandante de la Policía, ha
explicado que tiene listo un libro (Terrorismo y Subversión) sobre la
vinculación de los grupos subversivos ecuatorianos con el M-19 de
Colombia. Vaca desligitimó la Comisión de la Verdad, encabezada por Elsi
Monge, cuyos miembros (varios) tiene un "frondoso" pasado judicial.
(Teleamazonas)
Según Vaca, uno de los implicados (perteneciente al grupo subversivo
Alafaro Vive Carajo) que participó en el asalto a la entidad bancaria en
1986, declaró al canal de Teleamazonas que la única explicación para que
la Policía haya dado con la casa de seguridad o guarida -en donde
planificaron el asalto y repartición del botín-, es haber seguido a la
hermana Elsie Monge, que días antes había estado en esa vivienda en Quito.
También dijo que Lourdes Rodríguez Jaramillo, ex viceministra de Defensa
que fue nombrada en este Gobierno, y ahora se desempeña como la directora
de Seguridad Ciudadana del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, tiene un
historia que data de principios de los año 80. Ella y Merino Serrano
fueron acusados y detenidos por el robo de equipos de la imprenta de la
Universidad Católica, a esto se suma otras detenciones realizadas
posteriormente.
La autoría del libro la tienen 10 oficiales de Policía. Es un testimonio
jurídico-policial recogido de manera profesional de los archivos
policiales, de la fiscalía y de los juzgados. (xxx)
- En la dirección siguiente la declaración completa del General Vaca.
http://www.ecuadorenvivo.com/2009120842365/sociedad/elsie_monge_colaboro_en_asalto_a_banco_de_la_produccion_en_1986_segun_general_vaca.html
General Vaca
martes, 08 de diciembre de 2009
El general de la Policía, Edgar Vaca, ex comandante de la Policía, ha
explicado que tiene listo un libro (Terrorismo y Subversión) sobre la
vinculación de los grupos subversivos ecuatorianos con el M-19 de
Colombia. Vaca desligitimó la Comisión de la Verdad, encabezada por Elsi
Monge, cuyos miembros (varios) tiene un "frondoso" pasado judicial.
(Teleamazonas)
Según Vaca, uno de los implicados (perteneciente al grupo subversivo
Alafaro Vive Carajo) que participó en el asalto a la entidad bancaria en
1986, declaró al canal de Teleamazonas que la única explicación para que
la Policía haya dado con la casa de seguridad o guarida -en donde
planificaron el asalto y repartición del botín-, es haber seguido a la
hermana Elsie Monge, que días antes había estado en esa vivienda en Quito.
También dijo que Lourdes Rodríguez Jaramillo, ex viceministra de Defensa
que fue nombrada en este Gobierno, y ahora se desempeña como la directora
de Seguridad Ciudadana del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, tiene un
historia que data de principios de los año 80. Ella y Merino Serrano
fueron acusados y detenidos por el robo de equipos de la imprenta de la
Universidad Católica, a esto se suma otras detenciones realizadas
posteriormente.
La autoría del libro la tienen 10 oficiales de Policía. Es un testimonio
jurídico-policial recogido de manera profesional de los archivos
policiales, de la fiscalía y de los juzgados. (xxx)
- En la dirección siguiente la declaración completa del General Vaca.
http://www.ecuadorenvivo.com/2009120842365/sociedad/elsie_monge_colaboro_en_asalto_a_banco_de_la_produccion_en_1986_segun_general_vaca.html
Ecuador Ambassador Says Loss Of ATPDEA Would Hurt U.S.
Ecuador Ambassador Says Loss Of ATPDEA Would Hurt U.S. Jobs, Drug Fight
Luis Gallegos, Ecuador''s ambassador to the U.S., said in a Dec. 4 interview with Inside U.S. Trade that the potential loss of unilateral trade preferences for Ecuador and Bolivia under the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) could lead to the loss of tens of thousands of U.S. jobs and would hurt counter-narcotics efforts in those countries.
A bill to extend the ATPDEA and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, which both expire on Dec. 31, could be voted on as early as tomorrow (Dec. 8) in the House. The bill is expected to be a one year extension of ATPDEA and GSP, but Senate Finance leaders have yet to agree on such an extension (Inside U.S. Trade, Dec, 3).
In the interview, Gallegos said he has yet to receive any indication from Congress or from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on the future of ATPDEA benefits for Ecuador, which are in jeopardy due to questions over the country's treatment of U.S. investors, particularly Chevron.
But he argued that if Congress were to revoke preferences for Ecuador, that could lead to the loss of 50,000 U.S. jobs in the cut flower industry alone. This is because U.S. airlines often fly the cut flowers to the U.S. from Ecuador, U.S. importers handle the imported flowers and U.S. packaging industries help ensure the flowers arrive unharmed at their final destination, he explained.
ATPDEA benefits "don''t only produce jobs in Ecuador, they produce jobs in the United States," he said.
According to Bernardo Traversari, executive director of the Ecuadorean-American Chamber of Commerce, 80 cents of every dollar of flowers exported from Ecuador to the U.S. benefits a U.S. company.
Gallegos also argued that denying Ecuador or Bolivia ATPDEA benefits would hamper counter-narcotics efforts. ATPDEA beneficiary countries must effectively engage in these efforts in order to receive benefits, and the Congress will most likely not extend preferences for Bolivia because of its perceived failure to do so, sources said.
Gallegos said that Ecuador has been a "textbook case" of an effective counter-narcotics partnership with U.S. authorities, especially through border seizures. But he suggested that without the framework provided by ATPDEA for that partnership, these collaborative efforts could fall off in the future. In addition, he pointed out that Bolivia would have no incentive to improve its counter-narcotic efforts if it does not receive ATPDEA benefits.
The Bush administration suspended ATPDEA benefits for Bolivia last December, and the Obama administration earlier this year decided not to reinstate those benefits. Ecuador differs from Bolivia in that Ecuador is the only Andean country that does not cultivate coca, Gallegos said.
Gallegos also dismissed allegations by Chevron, which claims that ATPDEA benefits should be denied to Ecuador because the Ecuadorian government is intervening in a lawsuit involving Amazon residents over the liability for pollution caused by Texaco, which is now a subsidiary of Chevron.
"Everything is under control and under the rule of law," Gallegos said. "We are very respectful of international law in everything we do. Every step we have taken has been in line with international norms."
Luis Gallegos, Ecuador''s ambassador to the U.S., said in a Dec. 4 interview with Inside U.S. Trade that the potential loss of unilateral trade preferences for Ecuador and Bolivia under the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) could lead to the loss of tens of thousands of U.S. jobs and would hurt counter-narcotics efforts in those countries.
A bill to extend the ATPDEA and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, which both expire on Dec. 31, could be voted on as early as tomorrow (Dec. 8) in the House. The bill is expected to be a one year extension of ATPDEA and GSP, but Senate Finance leaders have yet to agree on such an extension (Inside U.S. Trade, Dec, 3).
In the interview, Gallegos said he has yet to receive any indication from Congress or from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on the future of ATPDEA benefits for Ecuador, which are in jeopardy due to questions over the country's treatment of U.S. investors, particularly Chevron.
But he argued that if Congress were to revoke preferences for Ecuador, that could lead to the loss of 50,000 U.S. jobs in the cut flower industry alone. This is because U.S. airlines often fly the cut flowers to the U.S. from Ecuador, U.S. importers handle the imported flowers and U.S. packaging industries help ensure the flowers arrive unharmed at their final destination, he explained.
ATPDEA benefits "don''t only produce jobs in Ecuador, they produce jobs in the United States," he said.
According to Bernardo Traversari, executive director of the Ecuadorean-American Chamber of Commerce, 80 cents of every dollar of flowers exported from Ecuador to the U.S. benefits a U.S. company.
Gallegos also argued that denying Ecuador or Bolivia ATPDEA benefits would hamper counter-narcotics efforts. ATPDEA beneficiary countries must effectively engage in these efforts in order to receive benefits, and the Congress will most likely not extend preferences for Bolivia because of its perceived failure to do so, sources said.
Gallegos said that Ecuador has been a "textbook case" of an effective counter-narcotics partnership with U.S. authorities, especially through border seizures. But he suggested that without the framework provided by ATPDEA for that partnership, these collaborative efforts could fall off in the future. In addition, he pointed out that Bolivia would have no incentive to improve its counter-narcotic efforts if it does not receive ATPDEA benefits.
The Bush administration suspended ATPDEA benefits for Bolivia last December, and the Obama administration earlier this year decided not to reinstate those benefits. Ecuador differs from Bolivia in that Ecuador is the only Andean country that does not cultivate coca, Gallegos said.
Gallegos also dismissed allegations by Chevron, which claims that ATPDEA benefits should be denied to Ecuador because the Ecuadorian government is intervening in a lawsuit involving Amazon residents over the liability for pollution caused by Texaco, which is now a subsidiary of Chevron.
"Everything is under control and under the rule of law," Gallegos said. "We are very respectful of international law in everything we do. Every step we have taken has been in line with international norms."
Is Sovereign Debt the New Subprime?
Is Sovereign Debt the New Subprime?
Posted Dec 16, 2009 08:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Is Sovereign Debt the New Subprime?
That's a question many on Wall Street are asking as 2009 comes to a close. Just as many subprime borrowers were unable to make their mortgage payments in 2007 and 2008, investors now fear certain nations will be unable to pay their debts in the year ahead.
Rising mortgage defaults and credit card delinquencies put many banks on the brink of bankruptcy in 2008, sending the global economy into a tailspin. But sovereign debt defaults are potentially even more catastrophic as they can lead to geopolitical instability, societal unrest and even war. And there will also be economic ramifications for investors worldwide, putting America's (and the globe's) fragile recovery at great risk.
To varying degrees, Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia, Mexico are just a handful of the nations viewed at risk of defaulting. Meanwhile, Dubai only just avoided a similar fate thanks to a $10 billion bailout from their oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi.
So, who else out there could rattle our constantly more interconnected world? Here''s a look at where the trouble spots could be:
Greece: Fitch Ratings last week joined two other ratings agencies in expressing concern about the country's health. "Greece faces the risk of sinking under its debt," Prime Minister George Papandreou said Monday in a speech where he pledged to slash the nation's budget deficit by overhauling the nation's tax system and cutting government spending.
Ecuador, which defaulted in December 2008 when President Rafael Correa said the nation wouldn''t make an interest payment of more than $30 million on a $510 million bond issue, carries a CCC+ rating at S&P. They define the debt issuers in the CCC category as "[c]urrently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments." Translation: Probably in for hard times.
Argentina, Grenada, Lebanon, Pakistan and Bolivia are judged to be a little better off, but they''re saddled with still dubious B- ratings. The single-B classification at S&P means these nations are "[m]ore vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently [have] the capacity to meet financial commitments." Translation: Not good, and needs some things to go right, preferably soon.
Mexico: This week, S&P cut some of its ratings on America's southern neighbor, but said the outlook is stable. Why the move? Because the agency believes Mexico''s attempts to raise money through sources other than oil revenue and to make the economy more efficient "will likely be insufficient to compensate for the weakening of its fiscal profile." Put it on your watch list.
Spain: Before you go thinking that problems can only emerge from closed regimes or places economists have stuck with the "developing" tag, think again. Earlier this month, Spain''s outlook was dropped to negative from stable by S&P, owing to fears the nation "will experience a more pronounced and persistent deterioration in its public finances and a more prolonged period of economic weakness versus its peers."
What Is Sovereign Debt?
Now that we've (hopefully) got your attention, here are some definitions for those unfamiliar with the subject:
"Sovereign debt" refers to the debt of nations. Just as the U.S. issues Treasuries backed by the "full faith and credit" of the government, other nations sell bonds in order to raise money to pay for programs ranging from armies to public healthcare.
A "default" refers to a nation's inability (or refusal) to repay its debt. Whether a homeowner sends "jingle mail" (home keys via post) because a lost job makes mortgage payments impossible or because a drop in home values makes paying the mortgage uneconomical, the effect on the bank is the same: they lent money and now they're not getting it back.
The same goes for investors who've purchased sovereign debts. This is critical because nations' debt is often viewed as safer than corporate debt since countries have the ability to raise taxes and increase tariffs in order to raise money to pay their debts.
But "safer" is not the same as "safe" and certainly not guaranteed. There are risks in owning nations' or sovereign debt, as with any stock. Defaults by Argentina in 2002 and Russia in 1998 are just recent examples in the long history of sovereign debt defaults going back to the Spanish empire in the 1600s.
In a new book "This Time Is Different", economic professors Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of Maryland, detail the history of sovereign debt defaults, noting common traits, including:
High Debt-to-GNP Ratio
Since 1970, nearly half of sovereign defaults have occurred in nations debt-to-GNP (gross national product) ratios of 60% or more. This makes sense: As a country's debts start to approach the size of its total economy (or GNP), it gets harder to make the payments, just like a individual whose debts start to eat up all (or most) of their salary.
Countries like the U.S. and U.K. have triple-A ratings, meaning they are considered the strongest in terms of the ability to repay their debt. (The ratings from top to bottom are based on the alphabet, AAA being the best to CCC meaning the financial world doubts your ability to pay the money back.) However, some experts worry about those pristine ratings being in jeopardy as Anglo-Saxon nations continue to accumulate massive amounts of debt to pay for spending, and to take on the recession.
A World of Risk
Few investors seriously worry about an imminent default by the U.S. or the U.K. But with worries about Dubai''s ability to pay its debts shaking markets across the globe in recent weeks, investors are on guard about which other countries might be in dire financial straights.
Ratings agency Moody''s, for example, said Tuesday that the upcoming year could be a rough one for government debt, issuing a report depressingly titled "Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tumultuous Times Ahead."
Anyone with access to the business pages knows individuals, banks, companies and governments everywhere have a serious problem -- just how bad it is and how long it will last is still being sorted out. Unfortunately, we probably still have a way to go before brighter days return.
Chris Nichols contributed to this report.
Posted Dec 16, 2009 08:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Is Sovereign Debt the New Subprime?
That's a question many on Wall Street are asking as 2009 comes to a close. Just as many subprime borrowers were unable to make their mortgage payments in 2007 and 2008, investors now fear certain nations will be unable to pay their debts in the year ahead.
Rising mortgage defaults and credit card delinquencies put many banks on the brink of bankruptcy in 2008, sending the global economy into a tailspin. But sovereign debt defaults are potentially even more catastrophic as they can lead to geopolitical instability, societal unrest and even war. And there will also be economic ramifications for investors worldwide, putting America's (and the globe's) fragile recovery at great risk.
To varying degrees, Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia, Mexico are just a handful of the nations viewed at risk of defaulting. Meanwhile, Dubai only just avoided a similar fate thanks to a $10 billion bailout from their oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi.
So, who else out there could rattle our constantly more interconnected world? Here''s a look at where the trouble spots could be:
Greece: Fitch Ratings last week joined two other ratings agencies in expressing concern about the country's health. "Greece faces the risk of sinking under its debt," Prime Minister George Papandreou said Monday in a speech where he pledged to slash the nation's budget deficit by overhauling the nation's tax system and cutting government spending.
Ecuador, which defaulted in December 2008 when President Rafael Correa said the nation wouldn''t make an interest payment of more than $30 million on a $510 million bond issue, carries a CCC+ rating at S&P. They define the debt issuers in the CCC category as "[c]urrently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments." Translation: Probably in for hard times.
Argentina, Grenada, Lebanon, Pakistan and Bolivia are judged to be a little better off, but they''re saddled with still dubious B- ratings. The single-B classification at S&P means these nations are "[m]ore vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently [have] the capacity to meet financial commitments." Translation: Not good, and needs some things to go right, preferably soon.
Mexico: This week, S&P cut some of its ratings on America's southern neighbor, but said the outlook is stable. Why the move? Because the agency believes Mexico''s attempts to raise money through sources other than oil revenue and to make the economy more efficient "will likely be insufficient to compensate for the weakening of its fiscal profile." Put it on your watch list.
Spain: Before you go thinking that problems can only emerge from closed regimes or places economists have stuck with the "developing" tag, think again. Earlier this month, Spain''s outlook was dropped to negative from stable by S&P, owing to fears the nation "will experience a more pronounced and persistent deterioration in its public finances and a more prolonged period of economic weakness versus its peers."
What Is Sovereign Debt?
Now that we've (hopefully) got your attention, here are some definitions for those unfamiliar with the subject:
"Sovereign debt" refers to the debt of nations. Just as the U.S. issues Treasuries backed by the "full faith and credit" of the government, other nations sell bonds in order to raise money to pay for programs ranging from armies to public healthcare.
A "default" refers to a nation's inability (or refusal) to repay its debt. Whether a homeowner sends "jingle mail" (home keys via post) because a lost job makes mortgage payments impossible or because a drop in home values makes paying the mortgage uneconomical, the effect on the bank is the same: they lent money and now they're not getting it back.
The same goes for investors who've purchased sovereign debts. This is critical because nations' debt is often viewed as safer than corporate debt since countries have the ability to raise taxes and increase tariffs in order to raise money to pay their debts.
But "safer" is not the same as "safe" and certainly not guaranteed. There are risks in owning nations' or sovereign debt, as with any stock. Defaults by Argentina in 2002 and Russia in 1998 are just recent examples in the long history of sovereign debt defaults going back to the Spanish empire in the 1600s.
In a new book "This Time Is Different", economic professors Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of Maryland, detail the history of sovereign debt defaults, noting common traits, including:
High Debt-to-GNP Ratio
Since 1970, nearly half of sovereign defaults have occurred in nations debt-to-GNP (gross national product) ratios of 60% or more. This makes sense: As a country's debts start to approach the size of its total economy (or GNP), it gets harder to make the payments, just like a individual whose debts start to eat up all (or most) of their salary.
Countries like the U.S. and U.K. have triple-A ratings, meaning they are considered the strongest in terms of the ability to repay their debt. (The ratings from top to bottom are based on the alphabet, AAA being the best to CCC meaning the financial world doubts your ability to pay the money back.) However, some experts worry about those pristine ratings being in jeopardy as Anglo-Saxon nations continue to accumulate massive amounts of debt to pay for spending, and to take on the recession.
A World of Risk
Few investors seriously worry about an imminent default by the U.S. or the U.K. But with worries about Dubai''s ability to pay its debts shaking markets across the globe in recent weeks, investors are on guard about which other countries might be in dire financial straights.
Ratings agency Moody''s, for example, said Tuesday that the upcoming year could be a rough one for government debt, issuing a report depressingly titled "Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tumultuous Times Ahead."
Anyone with access to the business pages knows individuals, banks, companies and governments everywhere have a serious problem -- just how bad it is and how long it will last is still being sorted out. Unfortunately, we probably still have a way to go before brighter days return.
Chris Nichols contributed to this report.
domingo, 18 de abril de 2010
VENECUBA A SINGLE NATION
VENECUBA A SINGLE NATION
Feb 11th 2010
Hugo Chavez, as he drafts in ever more Cuban aides to shore up his
regime, is fulfilling a longstanding dream of Fidel Castro''s
IN A small fishing village on the Caribbean coast of Venezuela stands a
plinth. Unveiled by government officials in 2006, it pays homage to the
Cuban guerrillas sent by Fidel Castro in the 1960s to help subvert
Venezuela''s then recently restored democracy. Almost entirely bereft of
popular support, the guerrilla campaign flopped. But four decades
later, and after a decade of rule by Hugo Chavez, Cuba''s communist
regime seems finally to have achieved its goal of invading oil-rich
Venezuela--this time without firing a shot.
Earlier this month Ramiro Valdes, a veteran revolutionary who ranks
number three in Cuba''s ruling hierarchy and was twice its interior
minister, arrived in Caracas, apparently for a long stay. Officially,
Mr Valdes has come to head a commission set up by Mr Chavez to resolve
Venezuela''s acute electricity shortage. But he lacks expertise in this
field, and Cuba is famous for 12-hour blackouts. Some members of
Venezuela''s opposition reckon that Mr Valdes, whose responsibilities at
home include policing Cubans'' access to the internet, has come to help
Mr Chavez step up repression ahead of a legislative election in
September. Others believe he was sent to assess the gravity of the
situation facing the Castro brothers'' most important ally (Cuba depends
on Mr Chavez for subsidised oil). He has been seen in meetings with
Venezuelan military commanders.
Although by far the most senior, Mr Valdes is only one among many
Cubans who have been deployed by Mr Chavez under bilateral agreements
that took shape in 2003. As well as thousands of doctors staffing a
community-health programme, they include people who are helping to run
Venezuela''s ports, telecommunications, police training, the issuing of
identity documents and the business registry.
In 2005 Venezuela''s government gave Cuba a contract to modernise its
identity-card system. Since then, Cuban officials have been spotted in
agencies such as immigration and passport control. A group of Cubans
who recently fled Venezuela told a newspaper in Miami that they had
bribed a Cuban official working in passport control at Caracas airport.
In some ministries, such as health and agriculture, Cuban advisers
appear to wield more power than Venezuelan officials. The health
ministry is often unable to provide statistics--on primary health-care
or epidemiology for instance--because the information is sent back to
Havana instead. Mr Chavez seemed to acknowledge this last year when, by
his own account, he learned that thousands of primary health-care posts
had been shut down only when Mr Castro told him so.
Coffee-growers complain that in meetings with the government it is
Barbara Castillo, a former Cuban trade minister, who calls the shots.
Ms Castillo, who was formally seconded to Venezuela four years ago,
refuses requests for interviews.
Trade unions, particularly in the oil and construction industries, have
complained of ill-treatment by the Cubans. No unions are allowed on
Cuban-run building sites. In September last year Froilan Barrios of the
Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, which opposes the government, said
that "oil and petrochemicals are completely penetrated by Cuban G2,"
the Castros'' fearsomely efficient intelligence service. Oil workers
planning a strike said they had been threatened by Cuban officials.
The new national police force and the army have both adopted policies
inspired by Cuba. The chief adviser to the national police-training
academy is a Cuban, and Venezuela''s defence doctrine is based on Cuba''s
"war of all the people". Foreign officials who watch Venezuela closely
say that Cuban agents occupy key posts in Venezuela''s military
intelligence agency, but these claims are impossible to verify.
Mr Chavez portrays Cuban help as socialist solidarity in the struggle
against "the empire", as he calls the United States. When he was
visiting Cuba in 2005 Fidel Castro said publicly to him that their two
countries were "a single nation". "With one flag," added Mr Chavez, to
which Mr Castro replied, "We are Venecubans." These views are not
shared by Venezuelans. In a recent poll 85% of respondents said they
did not want their country to become like Cuba. Perhaps Mr Valdes will
include that in his assessment.
Feb 11th 2010
Hugo Chavez, as he drafts in ever more Cuban aides to shore up his
regime, is fulfilling a longstanding dream of Fidel Castro''s
IN A small fishing village on the Caribbean coast of Venezuela stands a
plinth. Unveiled by government officials in 2006, it pays homage to the
Cuban guerrillas sent by Fidel Castro in the 1960s to help subvert
Venezuela''s then recently restored democracy. Almost entirely bereft of
popular support, the guerrilla campaign flopped. But four decades
later, and after a decade of rule by Hugo Chavez, Cuba''s communist
regime seems finally to have achieved its goal of invading oil-rich
Venezuela--this time without firing a shot.
Earlier this month Ramiro Valdes, a veteran revolutionary who ranks
number three in Cuba''s ruling hierarchy and was twice its interior
minister, arrived in Caracas, apparently for a long stay. Officially,
Mr Valdes has come to head a commission set up by Mr Chavez to resolve
Venezuela''s acute electricity shortage. But he lacks expertise in this
field, and Cuba is famous for 12-hour blackouts. Some members of
Venezuela''s opposition reckon that Mr Valdes, whose responsibilities at
home include policing Cubans'' access to the internet, has come to help
Mr Chavez step up repression ahead of a legislative election in
September. Others believe he was sent to assess the gravity of the
situation facing the Castro brothers'' most important ally (Cuba depends
on Mr Chavez for subsidised oil). He has been seen in meetings with
Venezuelan military commanders.
Although by far the most senior, Mr Valdes is only one among many
Cubans who have been deployed by Mr Chavez under bilateral agreements
that took shape in 2003. As well as thousands of doctors staffing a
community-health programme, they include people who are helping to run
Venezuela''s ports, telecommunications, police training, the issuing of
identity documents and the business registry.
In 2005 Venezuela''s government gave Cuba a contract to modernise its
identity-card system. Since then, Cuban officials have been spotted in
agencies such as immigration and passport control. A group of Cubans
who recently fled Venezuela told a newspaper in Miami that they had
bribed a Cuban official working in passport control at Caracas airport.
In some ministries, such as health and agriculture, Cuban advisers
appear to wield more power than Venezuelan officials. The health
ministry is often unable to provide statistics--on primary health-care
or epidemiology for instance--because the information is sent back to
Havana instead. Mr Chavez seemed to acknowledge this last year when, by
his own account, he learned that thousands of primary health-care posts
had been shut down only when Mr Castro told him so.
Coffee-growers complain that in meetings with the government it is
Barbara Castillo, a former Cuban trade minister, who calls the shots.
Ms Castillo, who was formally seconded to Venezuela four years ago,
refuses requests for interviews.
Trade unions, particularly in the oil and construction industries, have
complained of ill-treatment by the Cubans. No unions are allowed on
Cuban-run building sites. In September last year Froilan Barrios of the
Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, which opposes the government, said
that "oil and petrochemicals are completely penetrated by Cuban G2,"
the Castros'' fearsomely efficient intelligence service. Oil workers
planning a strike said they had been threatened by Cuban officials.
The new national police force and the army have both adopted policies
inspired by Cuba. The chief adviser to the national police-training
academy is a Cuban, and Venezuela''s defence doctrine is based on Cuba''s
"war of all the people". Foreign officials who watch Venezuela closely
say that Cuban agents occupy key posts in Venezuela''s military
intelligence agency, but these claims are impossible to verify.
Mr Chavez portrays Cuban help as socialist solidarity in the struggle
against "the empire", as he calls the United States. When he was
visiting Cuba in 2005 Fidel Castro said publicly to him that their two
countries were "a single nation". "With one flag," added Mr Chavez, to
which Mr Castro replied, "We are Venecubans." These views are not
shared by Venezuelans. In a recent poll 85% of respondents said they
did not want their country to become like Cuba. Perhaps Mr Valdes will
include that in his assessment.
FATF PUBLIC STATEMENT 18 February 20
FATF PUBLIC STATEMENT
18 February 2010
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is the global standard setting body for anti-
money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). In order to
protect the international financial system from ML/FT risks and to encourage greater
compliance with the AML/CFT standards, the FATF identified jurisdictions that have
strategic deficiencies and, along with the FATF-style regional bodies (FSRBs), works
with them to address those deficiencies that pose a risk to the international financial
system. The FATF and the relevant FSRBs will continue to work with the jurisdictions
below and report on their progress in addressing the identified deficiencies.
1. Jurisdictions subject to a FATF call on its members and other jurisdictions to
apply countermeasures to protect the international financial system from the
ongoing and substantial money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF)
risks emanating from the jurisdiction1:
Iran
2. Jurisdictions with strategic AML/CFT deficiencies that have not committed to
an action plan developed with the FATF to address key deficiencies as of
February 2010. The FATF calls on its members to consider the risks arising from
the deficiencies associated with each jurisdiction, as described below.
Angola*
Democratic People''s Republic of Korea (DPRK)*
Ecuador
Ethiopia*
* Despite the FATF's efforts, these jurisdictions have not constructively engaged with the
FATF or an FSRB as of February 2010 and have not committed to the international
AML/CFT standards.
3. Jurisdictions previously publicly identified by the FATF as having strategic
AML/CFT deficiencies, which remain to be addressed as of February 20102:
Pakistan
Turkmenistan
São Tomé and Príncipe
1
The FATF has previously issued public statements calling for counter-measures on Iran.
Those statements are updated below.
2
The FATF has previously issued public statements on these jurisdictions. These statements
are updated below.
18 February 2010
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is the global standard setting body for anti-
money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). In order to
protect the international financial system from ML/FT risks and to encourage greater
compliance with the AML/CFT standards, the FATF identified jurisdictions that have
strategic deficiencies and, along with the FATF-style regional bodies (FSRBs), works
with them to address those deficiencies that pose a risk to the international financial
system. The FATF and the relevant FSRBs will continue to work with the jurisdictions
below and report on their progress in addressing the identified deficiencies.
1. Jurisdictions subject to a FATF call on its members and other jurisdictions to
apply countermeasures to protect the international financial system from the
ongoing and substantial money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF)
risks emanating from the jurisdiction1:
Iran
2. Jurisdictions with strategic AML/CFT deficiencies that have not committed to
an action plan developed with the FATF to address key deficiencies as of
February 2010. The FATF calls on its members to consider the risks arising from
the deficiencies associated with each jurisdiction, as described below.
Angola*
Democratic People''s Republic of Korea (DPRK)*
Ecuador
Ethiopia*
* Despite the FATF's efforts, these jurisdictions have not constructively engaged with the
FATF or an FSRB as of February 2010 and have not committed to the international
AML/CFT standards.
3. Jurisdictions previously publicly identified by the FATF as having strategic
AML/CFT deficiencies, which remain to be addressed as of February 20102:
Pakistan
Turkmenistan
São Tomé and Príncipe
1
The FATF has previously issued public statements calling for counter-measures on Iran.
Those statements are updated below.
2
The FATF has previously issued public statements on these jurisdictions. These statements
are updated below.
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